On Bitcoin Adoption: Birth to Saturation

(I want to publish this in draft form because I think I need feedback)

Rationally…

Settlement use is always in relation to alternatives. As the market cap grows so does liquidity and the ability to use bitcoin for higher and higher value settlement transactions. This is the primary driver of rational speculation and savings.

Intensity in change of market cap levels off with global saturation.

Over time volatility is expected to wane as well as expected gains such that speculation becomes more like savings.

Savings is relevant to alternatives. Savings level off if all global money trends to value stabilization with bitcoin (see Jal’s Nashian Orientation of Bitcoin etc.)

Investments from speculation and savings spent change to settlement generally.

Some early speculators, becoming ultra wealthy, can be expected to keep some savings (ie for a very long time).

Being a public and immutable ledger makes bitcoin not good for black market transactions. But still serves SOME small value settlement even with a comparatively high fee/cost.

In the beginning bitcoin is not liquid for high value transactions and thus not a viable high value settlement alternative over time higher and higher market cap makes bitcoin a “cost” efficient option.

In the long run these all go to zero?